PHILADELPHIA: America is about to endure the closest, nastiest, most unpredictable presidential election in more than three decades.
Not since Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan ran against each other in 1980 has the choice been so stark, the warnings from each candidate about the other so dire, the likely outcome so murky.
As this year’s political conventions end, there is no clear victor. But watch upcoming polls. The leader in the first polls conducted after Labor Day, which in most recent election cycles is the first after both conventions end, has won the White House every election year since 1952.
“That’s when the dust settles. That is the person who ends up taking the oath of office,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
There is one exception. In 1980, the parties were tied at Labor Day, and the election didn’t swing until the final days.
On paper, Clinton wins if she follows the age-old Democratic playbook: Make sure African-Americans, Latinos, women and labor union members turn out in big numbers. Then she needs to add the liberals and young voters who so adamantly favored rival Bernie Sanders, voters who still need convincing.
“We need now to talk to people one on one,” said Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich.
Trump wins if he can keep the campaign focused on the anti-establishment narrative that boosted him from long-shot outsider to nominee, a plotline that helped boost him a bit despite a discordant GOP convention last week.
“There’s something different this year,” said Brandon Bell, chairman of the Republican Party in Rhode Island. “People are fed up.” But Trump also needs still-wary mainstream Republicans to back him.
Clinton, her supporters said, has to relentlessly remind Democrats and undecided independents, who make up about 20 percent of the electorate, of her history fighting for their causes — and paint Trump as unusually dangerous.
“Tell everyone to make a reality check,” said Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, whose congressional district is about one-third African-American. Remind minority voters, he said, of the party’s history of strong support for civil rights.
Tim Kaine, the Democrats’ vice presidential nominee, put the choice in stark terms Friday. “The thing I do best is when the civil rights lawyer in me gets engaged. This is a civil rights battle,” he told a Democratic National Committee meeting.
Getting African-Americans to turn out in the sort of numbers President Barack Obama got, though, is going to be tough.
“There is only one Obama,” said state Rep. Gilda Cobb-Hunter of Orangeburg, S.C., though he can be a big help if he gives Clinton the sort of full-throated support he offered at the convention.
Trump’s path to victory has two lanes: Pound away at the anti-establishment message, and woo back Republicans who have been sharply critical.
That remains difficult. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who didn’t attend the convention in his home state, still hasn’t endorsed Trump, or even spoken well of him. He recently told the Associated Press that Trump “would have to change everything he says” before that could happen.
More importantly, Trump needs to keep the campaign narrative focused on the throw-the-bums-out mood that rocketed him from politically nowhere to the GOP nominee.
The next pivotal campaign moment is likely Sept. 26, when Clinton and Trump are scheduled to debate in Hempstead, N.Y. Two more debates are to follow, in St. Louis on Oct. 9 and Las Vegas Oct. 19.