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Nate Ulrich: Browns’ quarterback decisions will ultimately determine whether 2016 NFL Draft was success or failure

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The premature NFL Draft grades are in.

The majority of draft gurus, including my Ohio.com podcast partner Dan Kadar of SBNation.com, Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com and Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN, graded the Browns in the C range. ProFootballFocus.com liked the team’s record-tying 14 picks more than most and gave it an A.

But the only letters that will matter in a few years when everyone can fairly judge what the Browns did in the 2016 draft are QB.

Corey Coleman could become a Pro Bowl wide receiver and Emmanuel Ogbah a double-digit sack artist at outside linebacker, but how the new regime’s quarterback decisions play out will ultimately determine whether this draft was a success or failure.

Teams can win in today’s NFL without elite quarterback play. The Super Bowl-champion Denver Broncos did this year, but that’s the exception to the rule. Remember, the 2013 Browns sent six players to the Pro Bowl and had a 4-12 record to show for it.

The Browns won’t win consistently until they have a legitimate franchise quarterback, so the decisions to pass on not one, but two passers in this year’s first round and bet on reclamation-project Robert Griffin III and third-round choice Cody Kessler are questionable at best. Griffin was relegated to third string last year in Washington and didn’t play, and Kessler’s lack of ideal size and arm strength could easily undermine his exceptional accuracy, work ethic and leadership ability at the next level.

California’s Jared Goff was the only quarterback in this class the Browns didn’t have a chance to draft because he went No. 1 overall to the Los Angeles Rams, who leapfrogged the Browns on April 13 by moving up from No. 15 in a historic deal with the Tennessee Titans. The Browns moved down from No. 2 a week later.

If Goff was the favorite of Browns coach Hue Jackson, that’s fine. He was mine, too. But that alone doesn’t justify waiting until the third round to address the team’s most glaring need when Griffin, the projected starter for the upcoming season despite the front office’s attempt to pump up Kessler as a viable contender, and veteran journeyman Josh McCown are the best options on the roster. Four quarterbacks other than Goff went off the board before Kessler at No. 93 overall, including two in the opening round.

By trading down from No. 2 overall to No. 8 on April 20, the Browns passed on a chance to draft North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz. The Philadelphia Eagles and head of football operations Howie Roseman bet the farm on him by surrendering one third rounder and one fourth in 2016, one first in 2017 and one second in 2018 to move up to No. 2.

Then the Browns passed on two chances to take Memphis’ Paxton Lynch by trading down from No. 8 to No. 15 on Thursday night and then picking Coleman there. The Broncos and GM John Elway thought enough of Lynch to trade a third-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks in a move up for him from No. 31 to No. 26.

If either Wentz or Lynch becomes a franchise quarterback, those decisions could haunt the Browns, Jackson, head of football operations Sashi Brown and chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta for years.

Of course, they would still save face if Jackson revives Griffin’s career and brings him back to his Pro Bowl form of 2012, develops Kessler into a franchise quarterback, drafts one next year (and the Browns will have the ammunition to move up the board if necessary), whether it be Clemson’s Deshaun Watson or someone else, or trades for a backup who ascends.

But those are big ifs, seemingly bigger than Wentz and Lynch being busts.

It’s why I’m not a fan of the trade down from No. 2. Having a bevy of picks is nice, but they pale in comparison to a franchise quarterback. Maybe Wentz becomes one. Maybe he doesn’t. Same for Lynch.

But the Browns had a layup of an opportunity to find out for themselves. Instead of taking it, they’re pulling up at the 3-point line on a fast break and relying on what appear to be greater gambles.

The Browns hired Jackson partly because he’s built a reputation as a quarterback whisperer.

So maybe RG3 will thrive again and prove to be more than just a bridge starter.

Maybe Kessler will evolve into a better option than the quarterbacks the Browns passed on before taking him — Wentz, Lynch, Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg (second round, No. 51 overall, New York Jets) and North Carolina State’s Jacoby Brissett (third, No. 91, New England).

And for that matter, the ones who went off the board afterward — including Michigan State’s Connor Cook (fourth, No. 100, Oakland), Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott (fourth, No. 135, Dallas), Ohio State’s Cardale Jones (fourth, No. 139, Buffalo) and Stanford’s Kevin Hogan (fifth, No. 162, Kansas City).

The only ones I would give the Browns a pass on would be Prescott, because he’s coming off a DUI arrest and the organization is hung over from Johnny Manziel, and Jones, because I fear his Cleveland roots and status as a mega-celebrity in Ohio would have sabotaged his career here.

And maybe Wentz, Lynch and the other quarterbacks the Browns forsook won’t pan out.

Waiting to learn how those scenarios unfold will provide the real answer to whether the Browns flourished or flopped in this draft.

Nate Ulrich can be reached at nulrich@thebeaconjournal.com. Read the Browns blog at www.ohio.com/browns. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/NateUlrichABJ and on Facebook www.facebook.com/abj.sports.


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