HOUSTON: The conference in which the Cavaliers reside has improved significantly, but the truth to which they clung through last season’s 19-20 start remains true today: They have time. Now it’s a matter of how they spend it.
While the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors both went to the whip the minute the gates to the season opened, the Cavaliers have no one in the East to push them. The East is vastly improved over last season, but all that has done is shrink the gap between 2 and 12. No one from the median has emerged as a true threat, and in fact the gulf between the Cavs and the rest of the East has widened this season despite the conference’s overall improvement.
Anything short of an NBA Finals appearance this year would be considered a disaster by NBA standards. The question now is who will they face: the Spurs or Warriors? For as good as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers have looked at times this season, anyone other than the Spurs or Warriors in the Finals would be an upset.
The Cavs have history with both. More specifically, they’ve lost NBA championships to both. This will sound blasphemous to some, particularly a Bay Area fan base that already wants to throw me off the Golden Gate bridge for leaving Draymond Green off my Defensive Player of the Year ballot last season, but the Spurs are the more terrifying team to the Cavs’ title hopes.
The Warriors visit Quicken Loans Arena on Monday and the Spurs follow behind in two weeks. What happens in January isn’t necessarily a predictor for June, but considering there are only two teams to which the Cavs can truly compare themselves this season, it would be nice to score a victory against one of them before the warm summer air returns to Cleveland.
For all the problems the Warriors pose opponents — and there are plenty — the Spurs are perhaps an inch or two more terrifying. The Cavaliers’ only victory against them in the last two years came as a result of Kyrie Irving playing out of his mind. Irving scored a career-high 57 points last season, LeBron James added 31 — and yet the Cavs still needed overtime to escape AT&T Center with a victory. It’s unfair (lunacy) to expect that type of performance out of Irving ever again against the Spurs.
Even more alarming is the way Gregg Popovich and the Spurs have managed James throughout his career. What makes Popovich so good is his ability to find a crack in the opponent and then take a jackhammer to it, pounding it and pounding it until it breaks wide open.
Sports Illustrated’s Ben Golliver had a terrific video breakdown in the hours after Thursday’s loss illustrating how the Spurs attacked Kevin Love defensively. Not only was Love out of position for stretches in the fourth quarter, there were times he wasn’t even looking in the right direction and moments he thought he had help when he didn’t.
Love has never been a good defensive player and never will be. But he at least has to be aware. The Spurs took advantage of Love and Irving’s defensive deficiencies Thursday and more than likely will try to do the same two weeks from now.
When the Warriors were unbeaten to start the season, I asked a number of Cavs players how to slow Steph Curry. They all said the same thing: Attack him on the defensive end. The easiest way for Curry to beat an opponent is to let him have the night off on defense. That’s what the Spurs did to Irving on Thursday and what they’ll do to him again and again and again. Even Irving conceded most of Tony Parker’s shots were in the lane. He never really bothered with jumpers because he was getting so much penetration.
The biggest problem for the Cavs to handle is Kawhi Leonard, and how consistently he handles James. The last two NBA Finals MVPs, Leonard and the Warriors’ Andre Iguodala, won the award at the expense of James. And more specifically, for the way they defended him.
Leonard matches up with James better than perhaps any player in the league. Leonard played James even again Thursday, and any time an opponent has a wing who can play even to James, it’s a huge advantage to the opposing team.
Three of James’ five NBA Finals appearances have come against Popovich and the Spurs. Pop got him twice and nearly has a sweep. The only thing that saved the Heat in 2013 was both Manu Ginobili and Leonard gagging at the free-throw line late in the final seconds of Game 6, allowing Ray Allen to hit a miracle 3-pointer that forced overtime. Credit the Heat for finding a way, but understand how close James is to being 0-for-3 against Popovich in the Finals.
There is time for the Cavs to figure this out. They have film now on the Warriors and Spurs this season and they’re about to get even more. They shot the ball poorly against the Warriors on Christmas and no member of their Big Three played particularly well at San Antonio.
When Irving was asked whether he’s at all concerned over the Cavs’ 0-2 mark against the West’s elite, he scoffed and said no.
“They have to come to our home,” he said. “We’ll see what happens.”
Jason Lloyd can be reached at jlloyd@thebeaconjournal.com. Read the Cavs blog at www.ohio.com/cavs. Follow him on Twitter www.twitter.com/JasonLloydABJ.