CLEVELAND: Few things in sports are as exciting as playoff baseball. Thursday night, it comes to Cleveland.
The Indians (94-67) and Boston Red Sox (93-69) will meet in the American League Division Series at 8:08 Thursday when Trevor Bauer takes the mound against Rick Porcello.
It’s the first time the Indians, who earned the No. 2 seed in the AL on Sunday, have been in the postseason since 2013 and the first time they won the AL Central since 2007. Here’s a preview of the series.
Lineup
This series features the American League’s top two lineups, though the Red Sox hold the edge in production in the regular season.
The Red Sox led all of baseball with 878 runs scored, 101 more than the Indians, who finished second in the AL with 777. Including defensive numbers into the equation, the Red Sox were the only team in the AL to register more than 30 WAR, per FanGraphs. The Red Sox (34 WAR) and Indians (27.2) finished first and second in the AL.
Boston’s lineup features two potential MVP candidates in outfielder Mookie Betts and designated hitter David Ortiz. Betts hit .318 with 31 home runs, 42 doubles and 133 RBI, reaching the upper echelon of players in the league. Ortiz had a phenomenal season at age 40, hitting .315 with 38 home runs, 48 doubles and 127 RBI in his farewell tour.
Outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. and shortstop Xander Bogaerts had terrific seasons as well, each registering a 4.9 WAR. Dustin Pedroia also had a renaissance season, finding the success he had under Terry Francona earlier in his career.
No AL team came close to the production of the Red Sox in 2016. The Indians did pace everyone else, led by Mike Napoli (34 home runs, 101 RBI), Carlos Santana (34 home runs, 87 RBI), Jason Kipnis (23 home runs, 41 doubles, 82 RBI), Francisco Lindor (.301 BA, 15 home runs, 30 doubles) and Jose Ramirez (.312, 46 doubles, 76 RBI). The top 5 in the Indians lineup all had strong seasons, but perhaps no contribution was bigger than Ramirez’s, who filled the void left by Michael Brantley’s lost season.
The Indians were more active on the base paths than Boston. They led the AL with 134 stolen bases, and their 81.2 percent success rate was the second-best in baseball. Rajai Davis represented that speed element, swiping a team-high 43 bases. The Red Sox stole 83 bases.
The Indians offense was among the AL’s most productive. The Red Sox’s lineup, though, was baseball’s best.
Edge: Red Sox
Rotation
The Red Sox are throwing Porcello, a Cy Young contender, in Game 1 to face Bauer. Porcello finally put things together to warrant the contract extension handed out a few years ago, going 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA and a 7.63 K/9 rate. Friday’s Game 2 will feature lefty David Price, the high-priced ace and former Cy Young winner, who had a so-so year (17-9 record and 3.99 ERA with an 8.92 K/9 rate) considering that price tag.
Clay Buchholz and Eduardo Rodriguez are slated to pitch Game 3 on Sunday and Game 4 on Monday, respectively. Buchholz, similar to Game 3 counterpart Josh Tomlin, has had an up-and-down season but was pitching much better later in the season. Rodriguez, another left-hander, was solid from July on, owning a sub-3.40 ERA in every month with the exception of June.
After that four-man rotation, Porcello will start Game 5 on Wednesday should the series shift back from Boston to Cleveland.
The Indians are going with a three-man rotation, having to heavily rely on Bauer, Corey Kluber and Tomlin after injuries to Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. Bauer began the season outside the starting rotation but ended with a 12-8 record and 4.26 ERA in 190 innings. Now, he’s not only the Indians’ Game 1 starter, he’ll have the task of starting Game 4 on short rest.
Kluber, the undisputed ace of the staff, had to be pushed back to Game 2 after he sustained a mild strain of a quadriceps muscle in Detroit. He’ll also start the potential Game 5, as the Indians monitor his health during the series. Tomlin seems have figured things out after a disastrous August, with a similar season arc as Buchholz. Those three will be tasked with handling the league’s top offense.
Edge: Red Sox
Bullpen
This series will also feature some of the better relievers in baseball. The Red Sox have Craig Kimbrel, one of the game’s top closers, available along with setup men Koji Uehara and Robbie Ross Jr, both of whom threw at least 47 innings with an ERA of 3.45 or better. Brad Ziegler (1.52 ERA) also has had a strong season.
The Indians, though, have arguably baseball’s best bullpen since the addition of Andrew Miller. Along with Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, Dan Otero and Zach McAllister, that group carried the Indians through a difficult stretch in August and September that included Tomlin’s issues and the losses of Carrasco and Salazar. Both bullpens could be aggressively used, the Indians’ especially so.
Edge: Indians
Bench
Few teams used their bench as much as the Indians, who often took advantage of platoon splits. That’s especially true in the outfield, with Lonnie Chisenhall and Tyler Naquin there as left-handers, Rajai Davis and Brandon Guyer available as right-handers and Coco Crisp as a switch-hitter. The Indians could also be active in pinch-hitting for their trio of catchers as they did often late in the year.
The Red Sox have a few interchangeable pieces thanks to the versatile Brock Holt, as well as former Kent State standout Travis Shaw. Outfielder Chris Young is a contributor as well.
Edge: Indians
Overall
The Indians earned the No. 2 seed and can certainly make this a series and advance to the ALCS, but losing Carrasco and Salazar in September are two major hits to their chances. At full strength, the Indians would likely be the favorites in the AL. But as roughed up as they are, they’ve been dealt a tough hand with which any team would struggle to handle. In come the Red Sox, baseball’s best lineup, and a difficult matchup.
Prediction: Red Sox in 4.
Ryan Lewis can be reached at rlewis@thebeaconjournal.com. Read the Indians blog at www.ohio.com/indians. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/RyanLewisABJ and on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/RyanLewisABJ