Good luck figuring out what the Browns will do Thursday night in the first round of the always-hard-to-predict NFL Draft.
Not only are they led by a new front office without a track record, but their trade down from No. 2 overall to No. 8 last week also opened countless possibilities.
I’ve run through many of those scenarios and become fixated on the idea of the Browns trading down again and drafting a wide receiver — I’m going with Mississippi’s Laquon Treadwell. My mock draft reflects that, but I have a better shot at filling out a perfect March Madness bracket than a reliable mock draft.
The truth is the Browns could go so many different directions in the opening round because they have needs at virtually every position. In an effort to explore the possibilities, I’ve ranked them from what I consider the most likely to the least likely.
1. Trader Sashi surfaces.
No one knows exactly how head of football operations Sashi Brown and chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta will attack the three-day draft, but everyone knows they favor the idea of trading down because they’ve already done it.
On April 20, they sent the No. 2 pick and a fourth-round choice in 2017 to the Philadelphia Eagles. In return, the Browns received No. 8, selections in the third (No. 77) and fourth (No. 100) rounds this year, a first-round pick next year and a second-round choice in 2018.
I believe they’ll try to wheel and deal again at No. 8 because accumulating assets, or picks, is a tenet of analytics, which fuels thinking in team headquarters. Brown said last week he has “not at all” ruled out another move down.
The Miami Dolphins (No. 13), Tennessee Titans (No. 15), Buffalo Bills (No. 19) and New York Jets (No. 20) would be logical trade partners. For mocking purposes, I went with the Dolphins moving up to No. 8 for Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott and the Browns taking Treadwell at No. 13 after the swap. I can also envision the Titans, who moved down two weeks ago from No. 1 in a historic deal with the Los Angeles Rams, trading up for an offensive tackle.
2. Support the bridge.
In the event of another move down, the Browns could take several routes, but I’d be watching wide receivers first, followed by offensive tackles.
Coach Hue Jackson wants to revive the career of reclamation-project quarterback and presumptive 2016 bridge starter Robert Griffin III. He knows his chances of achieving the feat will increase if the Browns add dynamic playmakers on offense and quality linemen to protect the passer. They ranked 30th in the NFL last season with 28 touchdowns on offense, 32nd (or last) with 123 quarterback hits surrendered and tied for 30th with 53 sacks allowed.
So targeting a wide receiver such as Treadwell, TCU’s Josh Doctson, Baylor’s Corey Coleman or Notre Dame’s Will Fuller after a trade from No. 8 to the teens would make a ton of sense. Michigan State’s Jack Conklin and Ohio State’s Taylor Decker are offensive tackles projected to be selected in that range.
The Browns desperately need big receivers, and Jackson likes the physically imposing types. At 6-foot-2 and 221 pounds, Treadwell is the biggest of the top-rated receivers. He’s also widely considered No. 1 in the class, though no receiver is deemed worthy of a top-10 pick this year.
3. Throw Ray a bone.
Bolstering the league’s 27th-ranked defense would be, in my estimation, the next likeliest outcome following a trade down.
The needs at linebacker and cornerback are glaring, and defensive coordinator Ray Horton needs more to work with in his return to Cleveland.
Ohio State linebacker Darron Lee, Clemson defensive end Shaq Lawson, Georgia linebacker Leonard Floyd, Ohio State cornerback Eli Apple, Houston cornerback William Jackson and West Virginia strong safety Karl Joseph would be among the options.
4. Umm, forgetting something?
Of course, the team’s greatest need is a franchise quarterback.
I’m not a fan of the trade down from No. 2 in the first place because instead of picking one of the two top-rated quarterbacks in this year’s class — California’s Jared Goff or North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz — the Browns decreased the odds that they’ll find a long-term answer in this draft by moving down. Now the Rams are set to pick Goff at No. 1, and at No. 2, the Eagles are on the verge of taking Wentz, who’ll haunt the Browns for years if he’s good.
But if Jackson prefers a so-called “second-tier” quarterback over Goff or Wentz, and last week he implied he does, the Browns could still be eyeing Memphis’ Paxton Lynch or Michigan State’s Connor Cook in the first round. Most draft analysts consider No. 8 too rich for either prospect, so trading down a handful of spots would make the pick more palpable. It would also be dangerous because quarterbacks are often pushed up the board, and another team could leapfrog the Browns for one.
Regardless, I’m not convinced the Browns love Lynch, and there are enough questions about Cook’s leadership skills that he could last until the second round. The Browns have the first selection of the second round (No. 32 overall) and might be more inclined to take a quarterback there or even use the pick to trade up into the first round and nab Lynch or Cook if they’re still available in the 20s. What appears more likely is waiting until later.
5. Don’t stray from eight.
The risk in projecting a trade is all of the above (or at least most of it) will be a moot point if the Browns don’t pull off a deal at No. 8. Still, I think they would really like to do it. I wouldn’t even be absolutely shocked if they channeled Eric Mangini circa 2009 and traded down more than once (which would also annihilate most of this discussion).
But if they stay at eight, pencil me in for Oregon defensive end DeForest Buckner, provided he’s available. Some analysts think he’ll be the first non-quarterback drafted (No. 3 to San Diego). Others think the Browns will get a crack at him at No. 8. Either way, he would give Horton a prototypical five-technique for his 3-4, multi-front scheme.
In an April 13 interview with SiriusXM NFL Radio, Brown named five players he anticipates will be picked early and called Buckner “a rare talent” without labeling the others.
Maybe it was a telling slip, maybe it means nothing, but the bottom line is Buckner has what it takes to harass quarterbacks and stop the run. The Browns were inept in both areas last season, ranking 28th in sacks (29) and 30th against the run (128.4 yards allowed per game).
There’s a good chance Buckner will be gone by No. 8, though. The same can be said for four other candidates: Mississippi offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey, Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa and UCLA linebacker Myles Jack, depending on how teams view his knee issue.
Perhaps the more realistic non-quarterback possibilities at No. 8 are Elliott, Notre Dame offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley and Florida cornerback Vernon Hargreaves. A strong case can be made for each of those three, but I think the Browns would lean toward Stanley. Then again, they’d probably rather trade.
Nate Ulrich can be reached at nulrich@thebeaconjournal.com. Read the Browns blog at www.ohio.com/browns. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/NateUlrichABJ and on Facebook www.facebook.com/abj.sports.