The vast majority of NFL Draft analysts believe the Browns should select North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz second overall instead of California’s Jared Goff if the franchise is determined to use its top pick April 28 on a quarterback.
But ProFootballFocus.com analyst Steve Palazzolo is convinced Goff would be the wiser choice.
In his most recent mock draft, Palazzolo has the Browns picking Goff at No. 2 and the San Francisco 49ers taking Wentz at No. 7.
“I like Goff because the more I watch him and the more you break down the tapes, I just think he does quarterbacking things that translate to the NFL,” Palazzolo said Thursday during a conference call. “He has the pocket movement, pocket presence. He’s so good and quick with his reads and seeing the field. He can work through multiple reads.
“[On] some short passes, he’s a little off behind the line of scrimmage. On some screens and up to 5 yards, he’s a little bit off from a ball-location standpoint. But between 6 and 30 yards, where you’re going to make the majority of your throws, he’s just the best in the class as far as putting the ball on guys. He did it under pressure. He did it against the blitz. I just like so much about his game.”
Goff, 21, is younger than Wentz, 23.
Goff played at college football’s highest level in the Football Bowl Subdivision while Wentz played for a small school in the Football Championship Subdivision.
In three seasons as a starter, Goff completed 977-of-1,569 passes (62.3 percent) for 12,200 yards and 96 touchdowns with 30 interceptions and a rating of 98.8. He fumbled 23 times but just four times last season. He went 14-23 as a starter, helping the Golden Bears improve from 1-11 to 5-7 and finally 8-5.
Wentz started for two seasons and finished his collegiate career 392-of-612 passing (64.1 percent) for 5,115 yards and 45 touchdowns with 14 interceptions and a rating of 105.3. He fumbled nine times with just three last season. He went 20-3 as a starter, missing eight games last season with a broken right wrist, and helped the Bison win their fourth and fifth consecutive national titles.
Goff took 81 sacks, and Wentz absorbed only 30. Goff left Cal with minus-114 rushing yards. Wentz had 216 carries for 1,028 yards (4.8 average) and 13 touchdowns.
Wentz is 6-foot-5¼ and 237 pounds with 10-inch hands. Goff is 6-4 and 215 pounds with 9⅛-inch hands.
Many analysts have cited Wentz’s size as the primary reason they think he would fit better with the Browns and in the AFC North.
“I certainly understand the love [for Wentz],” Palazzolo said. “I understand why people would get enamored with him. His arm’s exceptional. He’s athletic. He’s got the size, the build. Everything off the field supposedly checks out.”
However, Palazzolo said he would still “definitely take Goff over Wentz.” Not only does he consider Goff the better player now, but he also thinks he’ll continue to improve like he did each season at Cal.
Meanwhile, Wentz is often described as the player with more upside.
“I think the reason why a lot of other mock drafts have Carson Wentz [going to the Browns] is either because of hearsay or because of some kind of inside information or they simply are enamored with the upside potential that he has, and I completely get that,” Palazzolo said. “We have internal debates over here at PFF, where we have guys that completely get the Carson Wentz side of things.
“We went through and graded him, and he was good. He wasn’t as good as Goff from a grading standpoint. Some of the places where he’s weak, I think I just have concerns long term. He’s a little bit slow in the passing game. His timing’s a little bit late. His accuracy actually down the field is really not that great for a guy with such a big arm.”
Whether the Browns agree with Palazzolo or the popular opinion of his counterparts is the multimillion dollar question.
Nate Ulrich can be reached at nulrich@thebeaconjournal.com. Read the Browns blog at www.ohio.com/browns. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/NateUlrichABJ.